The Florida Masochist

Waiting on Wilma or Is this Groundhog Day?

Fellow Florida Blogger Bright&Early is beginning to ask that question. It seems we're stuck in a time loop with Wilma always three days away from Florida.

The wait could prove to be good for Florida. Wilma stalling over the Yucatan is taking away most of the storm's punch. It should only arrive here in Florida as a Category 1 or 2 storm. That is alot less destructive than the original forecasts were two days ago.

On the other hand all the forecasting computer models have Wilma coming to Florida. One way or another some parts of this state or in for a destructive storm. Please pray for all the residents of this state.

Because of the storm, many people are re-arranging their schedules. That includes the Miami Dolphins. They will be playing their game originally scheduled for Sunday, tonight instead. I'll have my weekly prediction up later.

Overall the waiting on Wilma game continues here in Lantana. I'll post more updates here as news happens.

Wilma Watch

The storm is still in the southwest Carribean but slowing down. Wilma is expected to stall over the Yucatan before turning to the Northeast. That's at least what the computer models are saying now. With this slowing down, Wilma wouldn't reach Florida before Monday. Earlier forecasts had it here on Saturday.

We're still watching it. Below is an article from today's Sun-Sentinel website. I'll update this post as news develops.

Much of Florida went on high alert as Wilma exploded into the most intense hurricane on record, but the storm began to slow. It may not reach southeast Florida until Monday morning with its winds as high as 120 mph and driving rains.Officials in the Keys ordered mandatory evacuations starting today. In South Florida, coastal residents and those in mobile homes might be ordered to evacuate by Friday.

A small ray of hope emerged: If Wilma rams into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, its anticipated right turn toward this region could be significantly altered and the system's strength weakened, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

"If it goes just 20 or 30 miles inland, the core could be destroyed," said hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart. "A lot will depend on the exact track."At 5 a.m., Wilma, which has already left at least 13 dead, was about 195 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, slowly churning west-northwest at 8 mph with sustained winds near 150 mph.

The expected turn to the northwest had not yet happened, keeping the storm on a track toward the Yucatan. The eyewall of Wilma was going through a weakening phase, with a replacement forming within 24 hours and the hurricane going through another strengthening.

"Thereafter ... a portion of the circulation will be interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula, and there will be increasing wind shear. Wilma should then begin a steady weakening trend," the hurricane center said in a statement.

Under the current forecast track, the system would strike near Naples. Hurricane center meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo said it was no longer expected to be a major hurricane after making its slow pass over the Yucatan. ``We expect it to be a Category 2 at landfall'' in Florida, Pralgo said. Category 2 hurricanes have 96-110 mph winds.

It would then roll through the north end of Palm Beach County as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.The severe weather is expected to be widespread because Wilma is expected to grow in size, with its strongest winds likely to extend more than 100 miles from its center, Stewart said. Hurricane winds now extend 70 miles from the center.

"This is going to be a large hurricane with all the nasty conditions, including strong winds and storm surge," Stewart said. "No matter how you slice it, it's going to be bad this weekend."After the system clears out, cooler, drier conditions will prevail in South Florida.

"It could be the nicest weather of the season," said Eric Blake, meteorologist with the hurricane center.At 8 a.m. on Wednesday, Wilma's internal pressure dropped to a record 882 millibars, and it had sustained winds of 175 mph. The previous record low-pressure reading was 888 millibars, set in Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

The system weakened because hurricanes cannot retain Category 5 intensity for long periods of time.Depending on its speed, hurricane watches could be posted for much of Florida's east coast by today and hurricane warnings by Friday.

Wilma

She is now a Category five hurricane. The storm is trekking through the western carribean and will pass over or near the Mexico and Cuba.

Right now it was happens after this that is troubling. Wilma is expected to turn northeast towards Florida. It should weaken before getting here, but Wilma appears headed for southwest Florida and across the state. Right now Palm Beach County is in the middle of the cone. Stay tuned.

SAN PEDRO SULA, Honduras - Hurricane Wilma strengthened into a Category 5 monster early Wednesday packing 175 mph winds, and forecasters said a key reading of the storm's pressure showed it to be the most powerful of the year.

Wilma was dumping rain on Central America and Mexico, and forecasters warned of a "significant threat" to Florida by the weekend.

The storm's power multiplied greatly over the last day. It was only Tuesday morning that Wilma grew from a tropical storm into a weak hurricane with 80 mph winds.

Wilma's pressure readings Wednesday morning indicated that it was the strongest hurricane of the season, said Trisha Wallace, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Wilma had a reading of 892 millibars, the same reading as a devastating unnamed hurricane that hit the Florida Keys in 1935.

"We do not know how long it will maintain this Category 5 state," Wallace said.

Jamaica, Cuba, Nicaragua and Honduras were getting heavy rain from the storm, though it wasn't likely to make landfall in any of those countries, she said. Forecasts showed it would likely turn toward the narrow Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico's Cancun region — then move into the storm-weary Gulf.

By 2 a.m. EDT, the hurricane was centered about 170 miles southwest of Grand Cayman Island and about 400 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving toward the west-northwest at nearly 8 mph, according to the Hurricane Center.

"It does look like it poses a significant threat to Florida by the weekend. Of course, these are four- and five-day forecasts, so things can change," said Dan Brown, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.

Wilma already had been blamed for one death in Jamaica as a tropical depression Sunday. It has
flooded several low-lying communities and triggered mudslides that blocked roads and damaged several homes, said Barbara Carby, head of Jamaica's emergency management office. She said that some 250 people were in shelters throughout the island.

While some Florida residents started preparing by buying water, canned food and other supplies, hurricane shutters hadn't gone up yet in Punta Gorda, on Florida's Gulf coast, and no long lines had formed for supplies or gas.

Still, Wilma's track could take it near that city and other Florida areas hit by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 storm, in August 2004. The state has seen seven hurricanes hit or pass close by since then, causing more than $20 billion in estimated damage and killing nearly 150 people.

Katrina Blogging Part 2

I'm still blogging on the Hurricane. Since my original post became long and unwieldly I decided to continue in a second post.

7:30 p.m. update- Hurricane Katrina has started coming ashore. The eye according to the National Hurricane Center made landfall in the Hallandale Beach/North Miami Beach area.

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACHAND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUSTREPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

The NHC also reported that Katrina was near 25.9 Longitude 80.1 Latitude. The storm has definitely shifted to the south. Most of Palm Beach County is going to miss the brunt of Katrina.

Two people were killed in Broward County. Anyone reading this and in Katrina's path stay indoors. Its too dangerous to go out.

Fellow blogger Florida Cracker isn't as fortunate. She is very close to the storm's path. Please keep her and the Cracker family in your prayers.

9 p.m. update- The local televisisions here are broadcasting regular programming. That tells you what they think of Katrina now.

The wind is still gusting here. A power interuption isn't impossible. I think if we make it to morning we'll be fine.

Latest position is- THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

Good news coverage continues at Sun-Sentinel and Miami Herald websites

I will keep posting updates till bed-time around 11 p.m.

August 26th 10:30 a.m. Update- I went to bed earlier than expected last night. Been putting the house back together. Also I'm still down from yesterday's news. That is why I didn't update till now.

Katrina is pretty much through with Palm Beach County. The sun came out at a little past 8 this morning.

As for myself, we have rolled back the shutters and restored the house to normal. The only damage we have is an uprooted papaya true. That's insignifigant, we count our blessings here. Maybe my baby angel Daniel protected his parents. Today and yesterday mark 31 months since my son was born and then died.

A friend who owns a small Asian market in Lantana, lost power at the store. They have no insurance, so could have suffered losses from spoiled food. Fortunately their power was restored last night.

My sister-in-law in Miramar had power as of 10 p.m. last night. Haven't spoke to her this morning yet. Leonette likes to sleep late.

It appears blogger Florida Cracker weathered the storm. Keep praying for her and all South Florida residents.

The Sun-Sentinel reports four people having died because of Katrina. Lots of roof and tree damage in Dade and Broward. A highway overpass collapsed in Miami but no one was hurt. A family of five took their boat out of Marthon and is now missing.

Florida Power and Light has over a million customers without power. The company warns that people that it could be a week before electricity is restored.

Latest Katrina location update- REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. That is 45 miles northwest of Key West. She is expected to turn Northwest towards the Florida panhandle. So Florida is not yet done with this storm.

As can be seen Katrina turned dramatically to the Southwest. This wasn't unexpected, some computer models had the storm doing this. The discussion posts at NHC are very good for detailed explanations of how forecasters predict these storms.

In all I think South Florida was pretty fortunate in regards to Katrina. The damage in Dade and Broward can be fixed. This wasn't an Andrew like storm.

Katrina blogging

I've decided to do regular updates on the tropical storm and its path towards Florida. That's till it either passes or I lose power.

Note- I have continued updating in a second post. Click here.

10 a.m.- Rather calm but overcast in Lantana Florida. We've had some squall like weather periodically but nothing lasting more than five or ten minutes.

Power is constant. No flickering as of this time.

I rely on the National Hurricane Center, plus the PB Post and Sun-Sentinel for updates on the hurricane. Local television reporting gets to be repetative after a while. They are often misleading and spectacular when reporting also. I will trust what I get from the papers and the NHC above anything I hear on the tube.

The most recent 11 a.m. advisory is up.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR.

26.2 Longitude puts the storm about due east of Deerfield Beach(26n19, 80w06. Deerfield Beach High School is my alma mata) or 25 miles south of where I live.

That puts us close. Katrina could still drift north or even south but there isn't much room between the storm and the coast. I won't be holding my breath for any sudden change south. Besides, that would push it into the path of my sister-in-law in Pembroke Pines. (26n0, 80w13)

Right now the concern I have is the slow movement of Katrina. That's going to prolong and deepen the storm's impact on South Florida. Frances last year was a slow moving storm and did more damage than Jeanne did.

11:45 a.m. Update- Wind is picking up a little.

12:17 p.m.- If anyone is wondering, I'm still waiting for the results of my MRI. Boynton Beach Open imaging which is the same company as Concept another medical testing firm has had a history of infuriating me in the past. Right now they are still trying to find the report for my doctor. These people may be my next knucklehead winner.

Weather conditions are the same. Dreary, light or little rain. The wind is gusty at times.

1:45 p.m. update- Here is the latest advisory. They are coming every two hours instead of every three now.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST ...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH.

plus

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Weather conditions are the same here. Location hasn't changed relative to where I live. We are in for a ride as I am not feeling confident about this storm.

2:50 p.m.- Another update coming soon but I'm not expecting anything dramatic.

How do we stand down here? Flat footed as the comedian said. No, not really. Our yard is secure except for a few last minute items, namely patio chairs. Shutters are pulled but awaiting to be secured. It's a two person job. Our car will probably be pulled into the garage so that will need to be worked on.

Dear wife is still working. The shutters need someone on the inside and outside to be done properly. Her boss hasn't seen fit to call work for the day. Ugh but what can we do. No office tomorrow.

Unfortunately our bank already closed. Too late for us to cash the wife's paycheck. That will probably have to wait till Monday. We do have cash on hand though, $300 plus dollars. Other supplies are fine, though if we lose power we may bug out similiar to last year. Either to my sister-in-law's(In Miramar not Pembroke Pines) or an apartment in Miami. We have a boatload of food in our freezer, I rather not have it all spoil. Last year we were without power for over a week after Frances.

530 p.m.- Katrina is a hurricane now. Maximum sustained winds of 75 MPH.

We're shuttered up now. The garage just needs to be finished then we move our car in.

The weather has definitely deterioated. Winds are up to the 40's now, rain comes and goes but there have been only short downpours. According to Channel 25 there are now scattered power outages in the County. So far so good in the Lantana area for us and our friends.

A 5 p.m. advisory put Hurricane Katrina at 26.1 N... 79.9 W. and moving at 6 miles per hour. About thirty miles off the coast of Pompano Beach. The storm has drifted slightly south in the last advisory. That's good for me here but not so good for Broward County. The slow movement of this storm is going to wreak as much havoc as the wind.

I got to try finding out when the last direct hit by hurricane on Broward County occured. It has to be before 1970.

Welcome to Michelle Malkin readers. Florida Cracker is blogging on Katrina too.

I got my MRI results. The post is here.

Katrina blogging continued here.

Breakfast- Basil's Blog

Here comes Katrina

There is no doubt any more. We're in for a ride from this storm. How much of a ride and if we'll get hurricane conditions here are still unknown.

Keep us(home included) in your prayers. Thanks.

Tropical Storm Watch

My part of South Florida is carefully watching a tropical depression near the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center posted a Tropical Storm watch for most of the Southeast Florida coast.

The family and I have been through a few weak tropical storms since our move to Lantana in 1989. This isn't a TS yet but expected to become Tropical Storm Katrina in the next day or so. It isn't a well organized storm or a very strong one, we should only get alot of rain and some wind, but after the hurricane experiences of 2004 I'm taking this more seriously than we did TS Irene back in 1999 or 2000.

So if my blogging suddenly stops, you know what happened. Stay tuned.

Breakfast- Basil's Blog

Update- At the 8 a.m. National Hurricane Center update, the tropical depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Katrina.